Author manuscript · · arXiv:2609.26550

Accept when confident, escalate when unsure.

JEV-as-a-Judge measures a typed decision service that returns a verdict and label probabilities. Across 5,172 base judgments and 17 configurations, JEV is a cheap first pass with clear capability limits. A frozen JEV → GPT-6 policy reaches 93.4% accuracy at 41.4% of GPT-6’s fee on 1,610 held-out pairs. On 570 pairs from new workloads, locally selected thresholds match GPT-6’s accuracy while saving 24.5% of its fee.

Yubo Li, Yidi Miao, Ramayya Krishnan, Rema Padman
Carnegie Mellon University

0.152s
Median latency on a matched 120-judgment panel
$0.044
Per 1,000 judgments, estimated from reported usage
277×
Cheaper than GPT-6 at low effort; 9× cheaper than GPT-4.1 mini
−14.6pt
Behind GPT-6 on JudgeBench, with equal 92.5% accuracy on RewardBench

Updated to the 28 September 2026 author manuscript; first posted to arXiv on 22 September. The single-judge timing panel, frozen offline policy, live replication, and prospective test are separate experiments. Fees are estimates from reported token usage at collection-time prices, not invoices; configurations differ in model size and reasoning effort and are not compute-matched.

Four findings organize the study

The LLM judges share a decision-only contract: a discrete judgment plus label probabilities, without a rationale. The study retains failures, distinguishes supplied labels from targeted human adjudication, and reports source-cluster bootstrap intervals.

Finding 01A cheap first pass

Mid-pack accuracy, a much smaller API fee

JEV ranks 8th of 15 LLM judges on the 4,850 public-task judgments, 1.7 points behind GPT-6 and 2.8 behind GPT-5.6. It matches GPT-6 on RewardBench (92.5%) and trails it on HaluEval (87.3% vs 88.4%). On a separate matched timing panel, JEV costs $0.044 per 1,000 judgments and returns in 0.152 seconds at the median.

Finding 02Capability boundaries

Hard correctness and misleading style still matter

On JudgeBench, JEV scores 78.6% against GPT-6’s 93.1%, a 14.6-point gap concentrated in reasoning and coding. On 500 RM-Bench prompts, making the rejected answer more elaborate reduces JEV’s accuracy by 8.8 points relative to matched styles; GPT-6 drops 1.7 points. Fast, valid output does not ensure a correct decision.

Finding 03A confidence boundary

Reference-free prose remains difficult for all three judges

On 200 balanced responses without evidence, JEV, GPT-4.1 mini, and GPT-5.4 agree with only 53.5–56.0% of existing hallucination labels, despite mean maximum probabilities of 0.91–0.96. On a separate 400-example document-grounded summary task, agreement is 69.0–69.8%. Confidence must be validated for the actual task.

Finding 04A deployable procedure

Choose the gate locally, then test it live

The frozen offline policy saves 58.6% of GPT-6’s fee on 1,610 held-out preference pairs. On two new correctness workloads, 100 selection labels per workload set stricter thresholds: the live cascade matches GPT-6’s 90.2% accuracy on 570 held-out pairs while escalating 74.2%. Savings depend on how much the first stage can safely accept.

Task fit matters more than a universal ranking

Seventeen configurations, base-order accuracy, invalid outputs counted as errors. The public tasks now include 1,500 RewardBench pairs, 350 JudgeBench pairs, and 3,000 HaluEval decisions. Hosted reasoning models use low effort (Qwen3.6 at its default); local Qwen uses non-thinking inference. These settings are not compute-matched. Switch tasks to compare the rankings.

JEV 1.13GPT-6 AstraReward modelsOther generative judges

View data

Paired JEV − GPT-6 difference

Percentage points, 95% source-cluster bootstrap interval, 2,000 resamples.

On supplied labels, RewardBench is tied (95% CI −1.4 to +1.4 points), HaluEval favors GPT-6 by 1.1 points, and JudgeBench favors it by 14.6 points. No single ranking captures all three workloads.

Where the JudgeBench gap lives

Accuracy by domain, JEV vs GPT-6 (n per domain).

Reasoning and coding drive the gap; knowledge differs least. Solving difficult comparisons is a distinct capability from ordinary preference judging.

What the supplied labels can miss

The targeted blinded audit covers 183 items from the original 990-item public-task subset: 163 where either judge disagreed with the supplied label, plus 20 controls. One human annotation, an LLM flagging pass, and author adjudication give a label-sensitivity analysis; this is not an independent multi-annotator consensus over the expanded evaluation. The human-adjudicated JEV − GPT-6 differences, normalized over the original 400 RewardBench, 240 HaluEval, and 350 JudgeBench items, are −3.0, −2.5, and −16.0 points, respectively.

Additional open-weight typed judges

The appendix evaluates Laya English and Typed-decisions as released, without fine-tuning; they are independent models, not JEV’s weights. Their RewardBench / JudgeBench / HaluEval accuracies are 47.3 / 48.9 / 68.9% and 49.6 / 49.1 / 71.3%. Valid outputs and fast local inference do not by themselves reproduce JEV’s accuracy. Context-complete subsets and confidence diagnostics are reported in the paper.

Paper figure comparing JEV and GPT-6 across skill groups, difficulty measured by the other 13 judges, and RM-Bench domain-by-style combinations.
Task and presentation boundaries from the latest manuscript. Skill groups are descriptive cross-benchmark comparisons; the figure does not isolate a causal effect of task type. Select the figure for the original PDF.

Measured latency and fees

A separate frozen 120-decision panel, one model group at a time, eight workers, 0.12-second minimum starts. Outcome latency includes network, provider queueing, and retries after the first attempt. Fees use reported usage at collection-time prices; missing usage keeps a conservative reservation.

Outcome latency

Median (dot) and p95 (bar end), seconds, log scale.

Estimated fee per 1,000 judgments

Reported usage (dot); lighter extension = conservative reservation where usage was missing. USD, log scale.

The roughly 9-fold and 277-fold fee differences describe this workload and these services. Different model capacities, reasoning budgets, caches, and providers prevent attributing the gap solely to a non-generative architecture.

Harder selection and answer style

Follow-up samples probe harder selection and presentation effects: 100 RewardBench 2 prompts with four-way top-1 selection, and 500 RM-Bench prompts with all nine style pairings in both orders (9,000 judgments per judge). More elaborate writing can distract a judge from which answer is correct.

RM-Bench by style condition

Accuracy (%), 3,000 judgments per condition. Hard: the less elaborate answer is the preferred one.

JEVGPT-6 AstraSkywork-Reward-V2 8B

Hard-minus-normal change: JEV −8.8 points [−10.6, −7.1], GPT-6 −1.7 [−3.2, −0.3]. On RewardBench 2 four-way selection, JEV / GPT-6 / Skywork score 73.0 / 75.0 / 79.0%; the 100-prompt sample leaves wide uncertainty.

All nine style combinations

Rows: preferred answer's style. Columns: rejected answer's style. Each cell: 1,000 judgments.

Above the diagonal the rejected answer is more elaborate. JEV’s top-right cell (concise preferred vs. Markdown rejected) scores 72.1%, compared with 90.2% for GPT-6. The full matrix shows how content and presentation interact.

Confidence is not a correctness certificate

The paper uses the maximum label probability q for every judge. JEV’s separate native confidence field correlates with it (Spearman 0.958–0.999 across the public tasks), but they are distinct quantities. For pairwise routing, probabilities are aligned to response identity and averaged across both presentation orders before computing q.

Reference-free hallucination judgments

Bar: label agreement (%). Tick: mean maximum probability. 200 balanced general responses, no evidence supplied.

JEV’s Brier score is 0.821 and error-detection AUROC is 0.498; GPT-5.4’s Brier score is 0.818. On 400 document-grounded summaries, label agreement is 69.8 / 69.0 / 69.3% for JEV / GPT-4.1 mini / GPT-5.4.

Probability quality depends on the labels

Brier score on supplied labels (lower is better), valid outputs only. Error-detection AUROC below.

On the full HaluEval sample, JEV has a lower supplied-label Brier score (0.196 vs 0.213). But replacing 28 labels in the original 240-item audit subset reverses that subset’s ranking: JEV 0.062 vs GPT-6 0.032. This sensitivity analysis does not relabel all 3,000 decisions.

Temperature scaling transfers unevenly

One temperature per task, fitted on the pilot selection set (64 / 32 / 32 judgments), evaluated on the disjoint extension. NLL, lower is better.

RewardBench T = 0.65 (sharpens)
0.192→0.216
worse on 1,340 extension pairs
JudgeBench T = 2.15 (softens)
0.449→0.475
worse on 270 extension pairs
HaluEval T = 4.45 (softens)
0.496→0.304
better on 2,920 extension decisions

The fitted temperatures differ seven-fold across tasks. Task-specific validation beats a universal temperature.

3.7% / 11.1%
Reversal disagreement, RewardBench / JudgeBench (GPT-6: 1.5% / 0.9%)
0/96
Decision changes across repeated identical requests; 4/48 under a paraphrased rubric
49.2%
First-position rate on RewardBench across both orders; 48.4% on JudgeBench. Aggregate balance can coexist with individual flips.
3/95
Reversal flips at base-order q ≥ 0.9 out of 95 flips with two valid outputs. Most order sensitivity occurs at lower confidence.
Order stability: what two calls buy

Averaging both orders gives a +0.76-point accuracy change [0.00, 1.57] on the public preference pairs. The diagnostics show that most JEV order flips already occur below high confidence. Four-way rotations keep the same choice on 87/100 prompts; averaging their probabilities does not improve top-1 accuracy.

Order-stability analysis comparing raw reversal flips, flips at high base-order confidence, and four-way choice stability.
Order diagnostics from the latest paper. Select the figure for the original PDF.

Accept when confident, escalate when unsure

JEV judges each preference pair in both orders and averages the aligned probabilities. If its maximum probability reaches the threshold, its verdict stands; otherwise GPT-6 judges the pair independently. A threshold of 0.9, selected on 96 pilot pairs and frozen before evaluation, was tested on 1,610 held-out pairs. These results are offline simulations from retained outputs; the live tests below measure the complete sequence.

A frozen gate on 1,610 held-out pairs

93.4%vs 92.5% GPT-6
Cascade accuracy: +0.93 percentage points, with a 95% source-cluster interval of [0.24, 1.66].
41.4%of GPT-6's fee
Both JEV calls and all escalations included. The conservative upper ratio is 44.0%.
31.5%escalated
JEV settles 68.5% of pairs. Escalated pairs contain 85% of JEV's errors.

The pool is 83% RewardBench. Savings and accuracy changes differ by workload, so the split matters more than the pooled headline.

Held-out workloadJEV aloneCascadeGPT-6Δ (pp) [95% CI]EscalatedFee ratio
reported / upper
RewardBench · 1,340 pairs92.8%93.7%92.4%+1.27 [0.45, 2.03]24.8%0.267 / 0.308
JudgeBench · 270 pairs81.3%92.2%93.0%−0.74 [−2.22, 0.74]64.8%0.668 / 0.668
All · 1,610 pairs90.9%93.4%92.5%+0.93 [0.24, 1.66]31.5%0.414 / 0.440

JEV-alone accuracy uses the two-order average; GPT-6 uses one call. Fees are relative to GPT-6 on the same pairs. On JudgeBench, escalation closes 94% of JEV's accuracy gap while saving about one third of the fee.

Why the first stage and fallback matter

A retrospective comparison applied the same selection rule to seven other inexpensive or open-weight first stages. GPT-4.1 mini stayed within one point of GPT-6 on both benchmarks, but its cascades used 62.2% and 98.3% of GPT-6's fee on RewardBench and JudgeBench, versus JEV's 26.7% and 66.8%. GPT-OSS 120B, Gemini 3 Flash, and Skywork saved fees but lost 7.41, 4.44, and 6.67 points on JudgeBench. Local-model fee ratios exclude GPU costs; this comparison does not establish a global cost–accuracy optimum.

The fallback also changes the threshold. With GPT-5.6 Sol, the frozen point rule selected τ = 0.7: it gained 0.82 points on RewardBench but lost 4.81 on JudgeBench. A two-point tolerance on a small selection set is not a held-out guarantee.

The same policy, run live

The τ = 0.9 policy was rerun on 510 previously analyzed held-out pairs: 240 RewardBench and 270 JudgeBench. Its live gate agreed with the offline gate on 98.6% of pairs.

Live replication · 510 pairsCascadeGPT-6 alone
Accuracy92.5%93.1%
Fee relative to GPT-657.2%100%
Median latency0.27 s2.10 s
p95 latency4.26 s4.49 s

The live accuracy difference is −0.59 points [−1.95, 0.59], with 46.5% escalated. Accepted pairs return in 0.18 s at the median; escalated pairs take 2.50 s. This replication confirms the offline estimates on familiar items; it does not test generality to a new workload.

What the confidence gate can see

Across 4,850 public items, the 3,744 with JEV confidence at least 0.9 give nearly tied accuracy: 94.7% for JEV and 94.4% for GPT-6. On the remaining 1,106 items, GPT-6 leads 75.0% to 67.7%.

This is a descriptive analysis of the full public sample. Confidence generally tracks correctness, but its signal weakens on style-adversarial RM-Bench pairs: error-detection AUROC falls from 0.839 on matched styles to 0.764 on hard pairs. On reference-free prose it is 0.498, and confidence routing does not help.

Order instability mostly falls below the gate: only 3 of JEV's 95 reversal flips have base-order confidence ≥ 0.9. Averaging both orders is a robustness step; its measured accuracy gain is small and not statistically significant.

A prospective test on two new workloads

Before any model call, the study froze the protocol, split, and threshold-selection rule for PPE correctness and JudgeBench's Claude response split. Each workload used 100 local selection pairs; the cascade then ran live on the remaining 400 and 170 pairs. Here JEV alone trails GPT-6 by 14 points, so maintaining accuracy requires more escalation.

570 held-out pairs, locally selected thresholds

90.2%matching GPT-6
The deployed cascade matches GPT-6's measured accuracy on each workload. Pooled difference: 0.00 points [−0.70, 0.70].
75.5%of GPT-6's fee
A 24.5% fee saving, including both JEV orders. Savings shrink on tasks where the first stage is weaker.
74.2%escalated
The selected gates catch 93% of JEV's errors. JEV alone scores 76.1% on these pairs.
Held-out workloadFrozen τJEV aloneCascade / GPT-6EscalatedFee ratio
PPE correctness · 400 pairs0.9578.2%88.2% / 88.2%67.8%0.693
JudgeBench, Claude split · 170 pairs0.9970.9%94.7% / 94.7%89.4%0.910
Both workloads · 570 pairsPer workload76.1%90.2% / 90.2%74.2%0.755

PPE covers MMLU-Pro, MATH, GPQA, MBPP-Plus, and IFEval. JudgeBench's candidate responses were new to the study, but some questions were not: its held-out split contains 57 seen and 113 unseen questions. Cascade parity holds on both subsets.

With most pairs escalated, median latency is nearly unchanged: 1.87 s for the cascade versus 1.91 s for GPT-6; p95 is 4.95 versus 5.58 s. Exact accuracy parity on these samples is an observed result, not a guarantee for future workloads.

Prospective cascade accuracy versus relative fee and mean latency for PPE and JudgeBench's Claude split. Rings identify the locally selected thresholds: 0.95 and 0.99.
The complete trade-off on the prospective held-out pairs. Rings mark the thresholds frozen on the selection sets and run live; the other thresholds are counterfactual analyses of the same retained outputs. Lower thresholds save more fee and latency but can lose accuracy. Click the figure for the PDF.

A practical threshold-selection recipe

  1. Keep the rubric and output type fixed. Run JEV in both orders and the fallback on about 100 labeled pairs from each target workload.
  2. On a fixed threshold grid, estimate cascade accuracy minus fallback accuracy. Choose the gate accepting the most pairs whose one-sided 95% lower confidence bound is at least −2 percentage points.
  3. Freeze the threshold and check accuracy, fees, and latency on separate held-out items from that workload. If no threshold qualifies, escalate every item.

The prospective test selected τ = 0.95 for PPE and 0.99 for JudgeBench. A point-estimate rule would have selected 0.9 for both. Thresholds depend on the workload and fallback; 0.9 is not a universal setting.

Why use a lower confidence bound?

In an exploratory simulation with 2,000 draws and 96 selection labels in total, a shared threshold chosen by the point rule lost more than two accuracy points in 44.0% of draws. The lower-bound rule reduced that share to 5.2%; separate thresholds for the two workloads reduced it to 0.6%.

Those 96 labels are drawn across RewardBench and JudgeBench, not 96 per workload. The simulation repeatedly reuses one benchmark pool and does not model distribution shift. It motivates local validation; it is not a formal risk guarantee.

Lower-bound rule

For each labeled pair, let d be cascade correctness minus fallback correctness. A threshold qualifies when mean(d) − 1.645 × SD(d) / √n ≥ −0.02. Among qualifying thresholds, choose the one accepting the most pairs, with ties favoring the stricter threshold.

Usable output is a distinct endpoint

Primary accuracy counts every failed call as an error. Provider-side structured-generation failures, HTTP-200 contract violations, and transport failures are separated so that service availability is not mistaken for reasoning quality.

Hosted judgeValid / 5,172GenerationContractTransportBreakdownJudgeBench acc. (all / valid only)

JEV returns valid outputs on all 5,172 base judgments. Qwen3.6 at default effort scores 87.5% on valid JudgeBench outputs, but has 174 failed outcomes across the base evaluation: 24 generation, 117 contract, and 33 transport failures. Valid-only accuracy answers a different question from end-to-end accuracy.

Reproducibility

The paper documents frozen requests, retained failures and probabilities, separate timing measurements, and pre-specified routing protocols. Its appendix describes an offline supplementary package for the principal analyses; historical calibration, repeat/paraphrase, interface, and rubric summaries are retained tables rather than fully regenerated pipelines. Prompts, schemas, and an exact JEV request/response are included in the paper.

Scope: one proprietary JEV version, heterogeneous model settings, and supplied benchmark labels supplemented by a targeted blinded human audit. API fees are estimates from usage, not invoices; local GPU costs are excluded where stated. The latest author manuscript is dated 28 September 2026. The primary paper link opens arXiv and its public version history.

BibTeX

@misc{li2026jevjudge,
  title   = {{JEV}-as-a-Judge: Accept When Confident,
             Escalate When Unsure},
  author  = {Li, Yubo and Miao, Yidi and Krishnan, Ramayya
             and Padman, Rema},
  year    = {2026},
  eprint  = {2609.26550},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  primaryClass = {cs.AI},
  url     = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.26550}
}